Steelers Draft Thoughts
Okay, listen: I know that the NFL draft is still over two months away, and that free agency hasn't even begun, but I'm already obsessed. I've been scouring draft sites and pondering mock draft possibilities, and here are my thoughts:
- Steelers' first-round pick? Nick Mangold, the center from Ohio State. Certainly, free safety and wide receiver are bigger needs, but here is my rationale. The best players at both positions, and the only first-round locks at this point, will be gone by the mid-point of the first round, well before the Steelers pick. Those among next bunch of players at both positions will be available at the end of the second (even the third) round: wideouts like Hank Baskett and Mike Hass, safeties like Greg Blue, Darnell Bing, and Pat Watkins. Of course, not all of those players will be available, but some will. Jeff Hartings made the Pro Bowl this year, but his age and his salary threaten his place with the team. In the best scenario, Hartings plays one year with Mangold as his apprentice, then decorously steps aside.
- Antwaan Randle El may return. He wants to be a Steeler, and, while his free agent stock certainly rose in the Super Bowl, it rose in the Steeelers' eyes, too. My uninformed opinion is that the WR least likely to return is Cedric Wilson. And that includes Quincy Morgan, who could provide a complement to Ward and allow ARE to move back into the slot. If so, the pressure to draft a WR in the early rounds decreases.
- Many are predicting that the Steelers will draft a QB on the second day, who will be the team's emergency quarterback behind Charlie Batch. It seems likely. It also seems likely that the team will spend a draft pick on a tight end: Kranchik was claimed off of the practice squad by the Panthers, and Tuman is going to be a decent TE in another uniform next year.
- What about a running back? Not long ago, people were linking the Steelers to LenDale White. White will be gone long before the Steelers pick, but folks yakking on the web seem convinced that the Steelers desparately need a RB. They forget, apparently, that the team deactivated Duce Staley for half the year because they couldn't find a place for him on the active roster. They had too many good running backs. Now they have lost one, which gives them just the right number. Staley's durability is a concern, but a big investment in a back would be foolhardy. A running back is a second-day pick.
posted by Shane at 4:29 PM
8 Comments:
I agree and disagree with you.
I do believe the Steelers will take a C in the draft, but not in the 1st round. They need one because they will cut either Hartings or Okobi because of cap space. There are two decent Cs in the draft this year (Mangold and Elsinger). One or both should be available with the 2nd pick. I actually think they might favor Elsinger because he is a good pulling center like Dawson was in his day.
The 1st pick will be either a CB or a FS. This depends on the outcome of Chris Hope. If they lose Hope to free agency, they'll go after Ko Simpson. They should have a couple 3rd round picks to give this year and they may use them to move up to go get this guy. He would make Troy an even better SS. I think the system made Hope seem better than he really is.
If they sign Hope, they will go after a CB. They won't sign Townsend (McFadden will start) and with Ike Taylor being unrestricted next year, I don't think the Steelers see him as the shutdown CB and won't pay him the money he will want (at least I wouldn't). I would like to see him take a chance on Antonio Cromartie for two reasons. One, he could very well be that shut down corner that haven't had since Woodson. Two, he can fill the void to be a good PR/KR after Randle El leaves. The Steelers will also favor Cromartie because the seem to favor FSU defensive backs.
I don't see Randle El staying in Pittsburgh. He'll get offered a nice contract and the Steelers won't budge because they don't overspend in one position and they already have a big investment at WR with Ward and Wilson. He's not a very good 2nd WR. His value is returning punts and the Steelers won't overpay for that.
Remember the Steeler's philosophy, run first. They won't draft a reciever in the first because they already have a decent staff. Hines Ward, Heath Miller, Cedric Wilson, and I see them signing Quincy Morgan. These recievers are all the Steelers need in a run first offense.
They should be able to sign Tuman as a backup. Tuman doesn't fit the mold of the current day TEs and I don't think he will be offered much outside of Pittsburgh, at least nothing the Steelers offer won't be competitive with.
I would guess their 3rd pick will be the next Slash, Michael Robinson. He will fill the void Randle El left as far as the trickery goes. And this kid could be even better than El.
Here are my picks, if they are available.
1st Rd - FS Ko Simpson/CB Antonio Cromartie
2nd Rd - C Nick Mangold/C Greg Elsinger
3rd Rd - WR/QB Michael Robinson
These are good thoughts. I'd be shocked--shocked--if Mangold was available in round 2. But I'd also be shocked if two centers are taken in the before the Steelers' second pick. I think round 1 may be a reach for Ko Simpson; there's no doubt about his talent, but he lacks experience. The replacement for Hope (assuming he leaves) will likely need to start early in his Steelers career.
I'm also skeptical about the Cromartie pick, again not because of his ability, but because of need. You're right about Townsend; he's gone. But I think that the Steelers are quite fond of Ike Taylor (look at how he was used against Chad Johnson), and I suspect that the team feels that the Taylor/McFadden combination solidifies their secondary.
I think round 3 is waaay too early for Michael Robinson. He looked bad at two positions in Senior Bowl practices, and he seems reluctant to stop playing QB. Of course, he may surprise at the combine.
But I think you're right about ARE. He's going to be a Bear. Quincy Morgan comes back, and the Steelers spend a second-day draft pick to get a tall WR who isn't Fred Gibson. And I think you may be right about Tuman.
Thanks for coming on board. Stick around.
Addendum:
The more I think about Ko Simpson, the more he seems like a legitimate Rd. 1 possibility. But I also like the idea of a Darnell Bing of Pat Watkins later on the first day.
Another question: what are the chances they trade down out of the first round? (Though history would indicate that the Steelers are more likely to trade up than trade down.)
I don't think they will trade down because they are already going to have 2 or 3 extra picks this year and they might have as many as 3 picks in Round 3-7, depending on what they are awarded.
They lost Burress, Bell, Clancy, and Ross and signed only one, Cedric Wilson.
The could have as many as 10 picks this year, if I'm correct.
The Steelers are very good at grading their players. I don't see Ike as an 'A' CB, he's more like a 'B' CB. But, he will demand 'A' money and the Steelers won't overpay for him and some other team will. He'll be gone in free agency. No matter what these players say, money talks and Ike will walk.
Just like Randle El this year. Yeah, he'll discuss it with God, but I bet God tells him to go get the money.
That's why I think they will draft a CB high in the draft so he is ready to replace Ike after next year.
Also, in losing El, they need a PR and this Cromartie should be a great one, especially with his 4.39 speed.
The more (and more obsessively) I look at it, the more I think that Ko Simpson won't be on the board when the Steelers pick in round 1: he will be a Giant (Brent Alexander retired today) or a Bronco. The Steelers will be in position to draft BPA, which means that position will likely matter less than ability. (Probably not a QB, though.) Good call, Billy, on the supplemental picks. Some good ones should be coming the Steelers' way.
Here are my post combine picks.
RD1 - S Ko Simpson
If Ko isn't there, they might go with Nick Mangold.
RD2 - WR Derek Hagan
RD3 - C Greg Eslinger
If they get Nick Mangold, they could go after a S here.
RD4 - QB/WR/PR Reggie McNeal
RD4 - QB Bruce Gradkowski
I heard that the best they can do with the supplemental picks are 2 4th and 1 5th.
I see them grabbing a CB, OLB, DE, WR, RB in the later rounds.
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